Ten minutes to go for the dinner hosted by President Pranab
Mukherjee in honour of visiting US President Barack Obama, who was here
as Republic Day chief guest, and Rahul Gandhi
sent word to his mother and Congress President Sonia Gandhi that he
would not be able to accompany her to the event. No reason given, just a
"mood swing" perhaps, say insiders as a visibly upset Mrs Gandhi went
ahead with the commitment.
For a dynasty-driven party like the Congress, Vice-President Rahul Gandhi today poses a very existential question. His ideas threaten to plunge the party into a quotidian mission that can upset the entire economy of Congress-style patronage politics of which Rahul himself is the biggest benefactor. At the same time, his failure can be even more devastating, striking at the core of the dynasty around which the Grand Old Party functions. And no one realises the fundamental nature of this crisis more than Sonia Gandhi, the mother, the bahu and the party president. So, as the frustration with the Congress vice-president turns into anger within the party and state-level satraps threaten to split, Sonia has stepped in again to rescue her party and protect her family legacy.
She has fought this battle before when the likes of Sharad Pawar rebelled at her ascendancy and has come a long way from the time when she strode to Rashtrapati Bhavan in April 1999 claiming "we have 272 and more are coming", only to be stumped by Mulayam Singh Yadav who went back on his word to support her. Sixteen years later, she again marched to Rashtrapati Bhavan with Yadav's brother Ram Gopal Yadav in tow, leading a bunch of smaller parties to protest the amended land acquisition bill. For the first time since the General Election, the Congress seemed to have found a bit of feet. Rahul's absence, it appeared, had only helped galvanise that effort. And the impact was visible. For the first time, PM Narendra Modi was seen as reacting to the Congress rather than setting the agenda. His March 22 'Mann Ki Baat', defending the land bill, was a counter to the belligerent attack by Sonia, who is seeking to turn this issue into an opportunity to consolidate the party's base in rural India.
Former finance minister P. Chidambaram believes that Sonia is trying to take a leaf out of her mother-in-law and former prime minister Indira Gandhi's book. In August 1977, less than six months after Indira Gandhi and her party were routed in the anti-Emergency backlash, she mounted an elephant and waded through waist-deep water to reach Belchhi, a Dalit village in Bihar. "She has taken up the Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act and farmers' issues. In due course, I am sure she will take up other economic and social issues. Sonia Gandhi's active espousal of issues will galvanise the party," he said.
Rahul and Sonia Gandhi with senior members of the party at an AICC meet in Delhi.During
the decade-long UPA rule, Sonia structured her politics around populist
programmes such as the MGNREGS, targeting rural voters who have
traditionally sided with the Congress. In 2014, her welfarist politics
found no buyers in an aspirational India captivated by Modi magic.
Modi's land reforms bill has now offered her renewed hope of
consolidating the party's base in rural India.
According to political observers, the Belchhi trip not only sent out the message that Indira was not going to get bogged down by the enormity of defeat but it also became the stepping stone for her journey back to power. Nearly four decades later, Sonia is trying to rewrite the script on her own.
On March 20, just before leaving for Darbiji, a nondescript village 35 km north of Kota in Rajasthan, to meet farmers who had lost their crop to hailstorm a week ago, she made a phone call to Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. She instructed him to hand over the probe into the mysterious death of IAS officer D.K. Ravi to the CBI. She did not consult a single senior Congressman before making that decision. In a span of just eight days, it was the third significant political decision she had taken without any elaborate consultation. On March 12, her office ordered all Congress MPs and CWC members to assemble at the Congress headquarters at 24, Akbar Road at 9.30 a.m. She then led a street march to 3, Motilal Nehru Road, residence of Manmohan Singh. It was to pledge support to the former prime minister who, just a day ago, had been summoned as an accused by a special court in the coal block allocation scam case. Five days later, she led the march to Rashtrapati Bhavan. Earlier that day, when senior leader Ghulam Nabi Azad instructed Congress MPs to be in Parliament, no one had a clue what the Congress president was up to.
On
March 17, she also wrote to Anna Hazare, expressing solidarity over his
opposition to the BJP's land bill only to be lambasted by the veteran
activist that her support was politically motivated. The same day,
initiating the debate on the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill, she
delivered a rare speech in Parliament and accused the Modi government of
failing to fulfil the promises made to the state after its bifurcation.
Once again, no Congress MP had any information that Sonia was going to
give her maiden speech in the 16th Lok Sabha. Many of them were about to
leave for lunch when the announcement was made. "Andhra Pradesh is a
sentimental issue for her as she never wanted the bifurcation but gave
in to political considerations," says a general secretary close to her.
Over the next weekend, she made a whirlwind tour of three states-Rajasthan, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. She met farmers, dubbed the land bill changes as anti-people, anti-farmer, demanded compensation for crop destruction from unseasonal rains and accused the Modi government of kowtowing to corporate interests.
However, Indira's daughter-in-law faces an even more difficult situation. The drubbing in 1977 was nothing compared to the worst-ever performance of the Congress in 2014, having been reduced to 44 seats in the Lok Sabha. Sociologist Dipankar Gupta doubts if it will bring the desired results. "The future of the party depends on how the current government functions. But it's unlikely that Sonia would be able to replicate Indira's success simply because the people in this country are fed up with the Gandhis."
Loyalists of the dynasty, however, are not yet ready to give up, drawing inspiration from how Sonia led the party to an unexpected victory in 2004, within six years of taking charge as Congress president. Like in 2015, the party was in disarray in 1998 with factional feuds threatening a vertical split in the party. She not only acted as glue for the party but made allies of former foes such as Pawar, who had left the Congress, questioning her foreign origin.
In the 17 years since she took over, there has not been a single split in the party until recently when G.K. Vasan parted ways in Tamil Nadu. "When NDA 1 was in power, (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee was probably more popular than what Modi is today. Yet Sonia not only consolidated the party but also led us to a miraculous victory," says senior leader Kamal Nath. Lok Sabha MP Jyotiraditya Scindia believes now is an opportune moment for the party. "The BJP government is following an agenda of religious intolerance coupled with anti-farmer moves. Aggressive leadership by the Congress President will help the party emerge as the winner again in 2019," he says.
While Congress leaders are ready to welcome Rahul as their next supreme leader, they also do not hide their preference for Sonia. As Manish Tewari puts it, "Sonia Gandhi is possibly the best person to lead the charge because of the dignity and gravitas that she has brought to the political discourse over the last 17 years."
Rahul's reluctance to adjust
Sonia addresses the media as rahul looks on, in DelhiChristmas
lunch is a sacrosanct fixture with the Gandhi family, be it Delhi or
elsewhere. It's a moment of bonding over a menu chosen by Sonia herself,
the one day she actually looks to spend time preparing a spread as the
family gathers around her, exchanging gifts and wishes. On most
occasions, Rahul's gifts to his mother are books and, more often than
not, he apparently gets his choices right.
But when it comes to Rahul, Sonia has been exasperated in recent times, asking his aides to get him to understand that his role requires him to do tasks he may not personally like. Despite all efforts, she, her aides and his aides have not been able to convince him to make even small concessions such as allowing visiting party workers to take a picture with him. The Congress vice-president apparently disapproves of the practice that workers go and hang these pictures in their homes to display proximity. This problem extends to larger issues such as whether he should have been the party's leader in the Lok Sabha. He simply said no, a logic that was an extension of his old argument that his politics is outside Parliament, among people and in the field. That it was important for him to take up the mantle in the party's interest during this challenging phase was a reasoning he refused to buy.
Sonia's return to action has also given a fresh lease of life to the party's old guard which was getting increasingly wary of Rahul's explicit aversion to them. During Parliament sessions, Congress MPs are often unsure how to approach their vice-president. On some days he is extremely cordial, helping young MPs smuggle placards into the Lok Sabha under his jacket during the furore over Sadhvi Niranjan's controversial ramzaade remark, on other days he would not even acknowledge a polite greeting. His associates say the reluctance stems from the compulsion of working within a system that he wants to change. Leaders such as Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath pleaded with Sonia to let Rahul try out all his experiments. Their logic was simple: matters couldn't get any worse.
While the first signal of rebellion against Rahul's style of functioning came in 2010 when then finance minister Pranab Mukherjee declared that he would not be a minister in Rahul's cabinet, senior leaders have often found Rahul's approach towards them disrespectful. Chidambaram had to rush to meet Rahul when the Tamil Nadu PCC chief publicly humiliated him and his son Karti. He even sought Sonia's intervention but while assuaging him, she asked him to also meet Rahul.
The tipping point came on January 22 when the then party communications chief Ajay Maken told mediapersons that its high command would soon take action against Organisational Secretary Janardan Dwivedi for allegedly praising Modi in an interview. It's believed that Maken's comments had Rahul's approval. Dwivedi does not enjoy a comfortable relationship with the Congress vice-president. Eventually Sonia stepped in, soothed tempers and sent AICC disciplinary committee head A.K. Antony to seek a clarification from Dwivedi; Antony also handed him a small note from the party president that said he still enjoys her faith.
Around the same time, several disgruntled satraps -Ashok Chavan in Maharashtra, Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Haryana and Amarinder Singh in Punjab-sent feelers to Sonia that they were considering a political future outside Congress. All three wanted to be made PCC chiefs in their respective states. Rahul reluctantly agreed to his mother's decision to give in to Chavan's demand but he was in no mood to replace the Haryana and Punjab heads as both had been chosen by him. According to party sources, this was one of the flashpoints which resulted in the Gandhi scion skipping the budget session and leaving for Europe for a vipassana course. While Rahul wants his men to take charge in every state and gradually replace veterans such as Dwivedi, Azad, Ambika Soni and Antony in the AICC, Sonia wants him to go slow and create a balance between the old guard and his new team. Her argument: these were the leaders who have helped her run the party for the last 17 years. As discontent began to surface, the writing on the wall was clear for Sonia-she was staring at a first-rate crisis in the party, one which had its origins in her family.
Rahul's associates however dismiss the existence of any conflict between the mother and son and say that his decision is always accepted when it comes to organisational appointments. A close examination of all appointments since October last year, including state PCC chiefs and spokespersons, points towards a strong Rahul imprint. In Punjab, Sonia is looking for a consensus candidate who will be acceptable to both Amarinder and Rahul. In Haryana, she is likely to appoint Hooda's son Deepender, who is close to Rahul. A close aide of Rahul says that the Congress vice-president is ready to take charge but is waiting for the organisational elections to get over. According to a party statement of March 26, elections for the posts of PCC chiefs, AICC members and the Congress president will be held by July 31. Although no date has been announced, even CWC members will be elected in a plenary session. But as Sonia had said in 2012, it's only Rahul who has to take the final call on assuming the biggest responsibility in the party. There is never a final word on him.
Sonia's recharge theory
The first step in dealing with this crisis had to begin from home. It is believed that Sonia had long conversations with Rahul, explaining to him the need to conform while ringing in changes within the structural limitations of the party.
His time off, sources say, will allow him the opportunity to think through these issues and his own role in greater detail. His absence, on the other hand, has also helped Sonia take some immediate steps to recharge the party and draw up a short-term action plan (see box). Her countermeasures include drafting in Priyanka Gandhi to act as a buffer to deal with the unease within the party, particularly among second-rung leaders. Her secretary Preeti Sahay has been calling MPs from the states that are to go to the polls next year, seeking their feedback. In December last year, Rahul's man Friday, Kanishka Singh, was also transferred to Priyanka's office. Sonia too has transferred one of her office aides to beef up Priyanka's team.
Sociologist Shiv Visvanathan says Sonia is a "survivor who has adapted to every role-from a naïve guest, subdued daughter-in-law to playing the Durga of the Congress".
In 2015, however, she faces the toughest challenge of her political career-to hold together the party and establish her not-so-popular son as an acceptable and effective replacement for her. On her success or failure hinges the future of India's Grand Old Party.
For a dynasty-driven party like the Congress, Vice-President Rahul Gandhi today poses a very existential question. His ideas threaten to plunge the party into a quotidian mission that can upset the entire economy of Congress-style patronage politics of which Rahul himself is the biggest benefactor. At the same time, his failure can be even more devastating, striking at the core of the dynasty around which the Grand Old Party functions. And no one realises the fundamental nature of this crisis more than Sonia Gandhi, the mother, the bahu and the party president. So, as the frustration with the Congress vice-president turns into anger within the party and state-level satraps threaten to split, Sonia has stepped in again to rescue her party and protect her family legacy.
She has fought this battle before when the likes of Sharad Pawar rebelled at her ascendancy and has come a long way from the time when she strode to Rashtrapati Bhavan in April 1999 claiming "we have 272 and more are coming", only to be stumped by Mulayam Singh Yadav who went back on his word to support her. Sixteen years later, she again marched to Rashtrapati Bhavan with Yadav's brother Ram Gopal Yadav in tow, leading a bunch of smaller parties to protest the amended land acquisition bill. For the first time since the General Election, the Congress seemed to have found a bit of feet. Rahul's absence, it appeared, had only helped galvanise that effort. And the impact was visible. For the first time, PM Narendra Modi was seen as reacting to the Congress rather than setting the agenda. His March 22 'Mann Ki Baat', defending the land bill, was a counter to the belligerent attack by Sonia, who is seeking to turn this issue into an opportunity to consolidate the party's base in rural India.
Former finance minister P. Chidambaram believes that Sonia is trying to take a leaf out of her mother-in-law and former prime minister Indira Gandhi's book. In August 1977, less than six months after Indira Gandhi and her party were routed in the anti-Emergency backlash, she mounted an elephant and waded through waist-deep water to reach Belchhi, a Dalit village in Bihar. "She has taken up the Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act and farmers' issues. In due course, I am sure she will take up other economic and social issues. Sonia Gandhi's active espousal of issues will galvanise the party," he said.
Rahul and Sonia Gandhi with senior members of the party at an AICC meet in Delhi.During
the decade-long UPA rule, Sonia structured her politics around populist
programmes such as the MGNREGS, targeting rural voters who have
traditionally sided with the Congress. In 2014, her welfarist politics
found no buyers in an aspirational India captivated by Modi magic.
Modi's land reforms bill has now offered her renewed hope of
consolidating the party's base in rural India.According to political observers, the Belchhi trip not only sent out the message that Indira was not going to get bogged down by the enormity of defeat but it also became the stepping stone for her journey back to power. Nearly four decades later, Sonia is trying to rewrite the script on her own.
On March 20, just before leaving for Darbiji, a nondescript village 35 km north of Kota in Rajasthan, to meet farmers who had lost their crop to hailstorm a week ago, she made a phone call to Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. She instructed him to hand over the probe into the mysterious death of IAS officer D.K. Ravi to the CBI. She did not consult a single senior Congressman before making that decision. In a span of just eight days, it was the third significant political decision she had taken without any elaborate consultation. On March 12, her office ordered all Congress MPs and CWC members to assemble at the Congress headquarters at 24, Akbar Road at 9.30 a.m. She then led a street march to 3, Motilal Nehru Road, residence of Manmohan Singh. It was to pledge support to the former prime minister who, just a day ago, had been summoned as an accused by a special court in the coal block allocation scam case. Five days later, she led the march to Rashtrapati Bhavan. Earlier that day, when senior leader Ghulam Nabi Azad instructed Congress MPs to be in Parliament, no one had a clue what the Congress president was up to.
On
March 17, she also wrote to Anna Hazare, expressing solidarity over his
opposition to the BJP's land bill only to be lambasted by the veteran
activist that her support was politically motivated. The same day,
initiating the debate on the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill, she
delivered a rare speech in Parliament and accused the Modi government of
failing to fulfil the promises made to the state after its bifurcation.
Once again, no Congress MP had any information that Sonia was going to
give her maiden speech in the 16th Lok Sabha. Many of them were about to
leave for lunch when the announcement was made. "Andhra Pradesh is a
sentimental issue for her as she never wanted the bifurcation but gave
in to political considerations," says a general secretary close to her.Over the next weekend, she made a whirlwind tour of three states-Rajasthan, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. She met farmers, dubbed the land bill changes as anti-people, anti-farmer, demanded compensation for crop destruction from unseasonal rains and accused the Modi government of kowtowing to corporate interests.
However, Indira's daughter-in-law faces an even more difficult situation. The drubbing in 1977 was nothing compared to the worst-ever performance of the Congress in 2014, having been reduced to 44 seats in the Lok Sabha. Sociologist Dipankar Gupta doubts if it will bring the desired results. "The future of the party depends on how the current government functions. But it's unlikely that Sonia would be able to replicate Indira's success simply because the people in this country are fed up with the Gandhis."
Loyalists of the dynasty, however, are not yet ready to give up, drawing inspiration from how Sonia led the party to an unexpected victory in 2004, within six years of taking charge as Congress president. Like in 2015, the party was in disarray in 1998 with factional feuds threatening a vertical split in the party. She not only acted as glue for the party but made allies of former foes such as Pawar, who had left the Congress, questioning her foreign origin.
In the 17 years since she took over, there has not been a single split in the party until recently when G.K. Vasan parted ways in Tamil Nadu. "When NDA 1 was in power, (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee was probably more popular than what Modi is today. Yet Sonia not only consolidated the party but also led us to a miraculous victory," says senior leader Kamal Nath. Lok Sabha MP Jyotiraditya Scindia believes now is an opportune moment for the party. "The BJP government is following an agenda of religious intolerance coupled with anti-farmer moves. Aggressive leadership by the Congress President will help the party emerge as the winner again in 2019," he says.
While Congress leaders are ready to welcome Rahul as their next supreme leader, they also do not hide their preference for Sonia. As Manish Tewari puts it, "Sonia Gandhi is possibly the best person to lead the charge because of the dignity and gravitas that she has brought to the political discourse over the last 17 years."
Rahul's reluctance to adjust
Sonia addresses the media as rahul looks on, in DelhiChristmas
lunch is a sacrosanct fixture with the Gandhi family, be it Delhi or
elsewhere. It's a moment of bonding over a menu chosen by Sonia herself,
the one day she actually looks to spend time preparing a spread as the
family gathers around her, exchanging gifts and wishes. On most
occasions, Rahul's gifts to his mother are books and, more often than
not, he apparently gets his choices right.But when it comes to Rahul, Sonia has been exasperated in recent times, asking his aides to get him to understand that his role requires him to do tasks he may not personally like. Despite all efforts, she, her aides and his aides have not been able to convince him to make even small concessions such as allowing visiting party workers to take a picture with him. The Congress vice-president apparently disapproves of the practice that workers go and hang these pictures in their homes to display proximity. This problem extends to larger issues such as whether he should have been the party's leader in the Lok Sabha. He simply said no, a logic that was an extension of his old argument that his politics is outside Parliament, among people and in the field. That it was important for him to take up the mantle in the party's interest during this challenging phase was a reasoning he refused to buy.
Sonia's return to action has also given a fresh lease of life to the party's old guard which was getting increasingly wary of Rahul's explicit aversion to them. During Parliament sessions, Congress MPs are often unsure how to approach their vice-president. On some days he is extremely cordial, helping young MPs smuggle placards into the Lok Sabha under his jacket during the furore over Sadhvi Niranjan's controversial ramzaade remark, on other days he would not even acknowledge a polite greeting. His associates say the reluctance stems from the compulsion of working within a system that he wants to change. Leaders such as Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath pleaded with Sonia to let Rahul try out all his experiments. Their logic was simple: matters couldn't get any worse.
While the first signal of rebellion against Rahul's style of functioning came in 2010 when then finance minister Pranab Mukherjee declared that he would not be a minister in Rahul's cabinet, senior leaders have often found Rahul's approach towards them disrespectful. Chidambaram had to rush to meet Rahul when the Tamil Nadu PCC chief publicly humiliated him and his son Karti. He even sought Sonia's intervention but while assuaging him, she asked him to also meet Rahul.
The tipping point came on January 22 when the then party communications chief Ajay Maken told mediapersons that its high command would soon take action against Organisational Secretary Janardan Dwivedi for allegedly praising Modi in an interview. It's believed that Maken's comments had Rahul's approval. Dwivedi does not enjoy a comfortable relationship with the Congress vice-president. Eventually Sonia stepped in, soothed tempers and sent AICC disciplinary committee head A.K. Antony to seek a clarification from Dwivedi; Antony also handed him a small note from the party president that said he still enjoys her faith.
Around the same time, several disgruntled satraps -Ashok Chavan in Maharashtra, Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Haryana and Amarinder Singh in Punjab-sent feelers to Sonia that they were considering a political future outside Congress. All three wanted to be made PCC chiefs in their respective states. Rahul reluctantly agreed to his mother's decision to give in to Chavan's demand but he was in no mood to replace the Haryana and Punjab heads as both had been chosen by him. According to party sources, this was one of the flashpoints which resulted in the Gandhi scion skipping the budget session and leaving for Europe for a vipassana course. While Rahul wants his men to take charge in every state and gradually replace veterans such as Dwivedi, Azad, Ambika Soni and Antony in the AICC, Sonia wants him to go slow and create a balance between the old guard and his new team. Her argument: these were the leaders who have helped her run the party for the last 17 years. As discontent began to surface, the writing on the wall was clear for Sonia-she was staring at a first-rate crisis in the party, one which had its origins in her family.
Rahul's associates however dismiss the existence of any conflict between the mother and son and say that his decision is always accepted when it comes to organisational appointments. A close examination of all appointments since October last year, including state PCC chiefs and spokespersons, points towards a strong Rahul imprint. In Punjab, Sonia is looking for a consensus candidate who will be acceptable to both Amarinder and Rahul. In Haryana, she is likely to appoint Hooda's son Deepender, who is close to Rahul. A close aide of Rahul says that the Congress vice-president is ready to take charge but is waiting for the organisational elections to get over. According to a party statement of March 26, elections for the posts of PCC chiefs, AICC members and the Congress president will be held by July 31. Although no date has been announced, even CWC members will be elected in a plenary session. But as Sonia had said in 2012, it's only Rahul who has to take the final call on assuming the biggest responsibility in the party. There is never a final word on him.
Sonia's recharge theory
The first step in dealing with this crisis had to begin from home. It is believed that Sonia had long conversations with Rahul, explaining to him the need to conform while ringing in changes within the structural limitations of the party.
His time off, sources say, will allow him the opportunity to think through these issues and his own role in greater detail. His absence, on the other hand, has also helped Sonia take some immediate steps to recharge the party and draw up a short-term action plan (see box). Her countermeasures include drafting in Priyanka Gandhi to act as a buffer to deal with the unease within the party, particularly among second-rung leaders. Her secretary Preeti Sahay has been calling MPs from the states that are to go to the polls next year, seeking their feedback. In December last year, Rahul's man Friday, Kanishka Singh, was also transferred to Priyanka's office. Sonia too has transferred one of her office aides to beef up Priyanka's team.
Sociologist Shiv Visvanathan says Sonia is a "survivor who has adapted to every role-from a naïve guest, subdued daughter-in-law to playing the Durga of the Congress".
In 2015, however, she faces the toughest challenge of her political career-to hold together the party and establish her not-so-popular son as an acceptable and effective replacement for her. On her success or failure hinges the future of India's Grand Old Party.
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